The twice-weekly briefing.

Macro, Rates & Credit Conditions · 10 August 2026

Week of Aug 10–14: July CPI Is the Pivotal Catalyst for Fed Rate Path and Credit Conditions

The coming week is dominated by a single macro event with outsized implications for leveraged credit: the July CPI print on August 12. A surprise jobs miss last Friday sharply repriced September Fed hike odds, leaving markets split and highly sensitive to incoming inflation data. The Fed held steady at its July meeting, but three FOMC members dissented in favor of a hike — meaning the CPI number could either validate the hold or reignite the hiking debate. Alongside CPI, PPI, retail sales, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment round out a dense U.S. data week. Internationally, the Bank of England held rates but warned of renewed inflation from elevated energy prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, a dynamic that also shapes the global rate backdrop. Treasury clearing implementation progress at the SEC adds a structural market-plumbing watch item.

Macro, Rates & Credit Conditions · 7 August 2026

Rates Bite Harder: Higher-for-Longer Fears Dominate as Fed Stays Deliberately Opaque

The dominant theme of the week is a higher-for-longer rate environment made more uncertain by Fed Chair Warsh's deliberate withdrawal of forward guidance. Record swap-futures hedging, a spike in daily mortgage rates to near multi-year highs, and a historic weekly drop in pending home sales all point to markets repricing rate risk upward. The July SLOOS offered a partial offset — C&I lending standards held steady and large-firm loan demand firmed — but consumer credit is bifurcating, with residential real estate demand weakening and credit card standards tightening. At the single-name level, Oracle's approach to junk-rating territory is the week's most concrete credit-quality signal, illustrating the balance-sheet risk embedded in AI-driven capital spending. The Friday jobs report lands into this backdrop as the first major data test of Warsh's reaction function, with the outcome likely to set the tone for rate expectations heading into September.

Private Equity Sponsors & Liability Management · 3 August 2026

PE Liability Management SETUP: Alkegen Prepack in Motion, Loan Market Tightening, KKR Deploys at Scale — Week of Aug 3

The week ahead is defined by three converging dynamics: (1) Alkegen's prepackaged Chapter 11 is live, offering a real-time case study in what happens when liability-management extensions run out of road; (2) the leveraged loan market has visibly shifted — at least four borrowers were forced to sweeten terms last week, and the repricing trend is likely to continue into new deals pricing this week; (3) KKR is simultaneously deploying at scale across buyout (Integer, ~$5.7B) and credit (RAMS portfolio acquisition), signalling that well-capitalised sponsors with integrated credit arms retain structural advantages even as conditions tighten for others.

Private Equity Sponsors & Liability Management · 31 July 2026

Week of July 31: Record LBO Imminent, Sponsor Exits Active, Private Credit Stress Creeping Higher

The week ending July 31, 2026 was defined by two opposing forces: a record-scale buyout approaching the finish line and mounting evidence that the debt markets underpinning the prior vintage of software LBOs are under strain. The EA take-private — a $55 billion consortium deal led by Saudi Arabia's PIF — is days from closing and will reset every nominal LBO record. At the same time, Thoma Bravo's difficulty refinancing Proofpoint illustrates that lenders are applying a meaningful AI-disruption discount to indebted software credits, a dynamic PitchBook's credit research corroborates with data showing stress creeping higher across both private credit and broadly syndicated loans, with 2028 maturities the focal point. On the exit side, CVC and Partners Group achieved a clean, large-scale exit from Żabka via strategic acquirer Couche-Tard, and H.I.G. signed to sell JT Thorpe to Truelink Capital — both via committed-debt-funded strategic or secondary buyers rather than public markets. Against this backdrop, GTCR's $1.25 billion Capital Solutions Fund close, Ares's record $170 billion dry powder, and KKR's $72 billion of uninvested committed capital collectively signal that structured and rescue capital is available — but on terms set by disciplined, well-capitalized counterparties.

BDCs & Listed Private Credit Vehicles · 27 July 2026

BDC Earnings Wave Breaks This Week — ARCC on Wednesday, GBDC on Monday; FSK & OBDC Follow Next Week

The week of July 28 is the most concentrated BDC earnings window of the quarter. Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) reports today (Monday), followed by the sector's bellwether, Ares Capital (ARCC), before the open on Wednesday July 29 — consensus expects $0.47 EPS and ~$770M revenue, against a Q1 that narrowly missed. Blue Owl (OBDC) and FS KKR (FSK) follow the week after (Aug. 5–6); FSK enters with the most risk given a Q1 miss, a 24% year-over-year revenue decline, and a consensus 'Reduce' rating. The sector backdrop is mixed but not alarming: prior-week prints showed idiosyncratic NAV stress (SAR -5%) alongside NII beats (MAIN, CSWC), and deal-flow signals from TRIN suggest the origination environment is improving. Elevated short interest in BXSL (lending rates at 12.2%) is worth monitoring for contagion to other names as earnings land.